This research presents a project time and cost performance simulation model to assist project planners and managers by providing a complete picture during the Incentive/Disincentive (I/D) contracting decision-making process of possible performance outcomes with probabilities based on historical data. This study was performed by collecting transportation construction project data. The collected project data from the Florida Department of Transportation were evaluated using time and cost performance indices and then statistical data analysis was performed to identify important factors that influence construction project time performance. Using Monte Carlo simulation procedures, this study demonstrated a methodology for developing an I/D project time and cost performance prediction model. User-friendly visual interfaces were developed to perform the simulation and report results using Visual Basic Application programming. The developed model was validated using additional cases of transportation construction projects. Based on statistical analysis, this research found that several project factors influence I/D contracting performance. The important factors that had significant impacts on project performance were the effects of contract type, project type, district, project size, project length, maximum incentive amount, and daily I/D amount. In conclusion, the developed model applied to I/D contracting projects will be a useful tool to assist the project planners and managers during the decision-making process and will promote the efficient use of I/D contracting, which will benefit the traveling public by saving their travel time from construction delays. With additional project data, the developed model can be updated easily and the more data used for the model, the better the accuracy of prediction that can be expected.

Publication Date


Publication Type



Transportation Finance

MTI Project



Contracting; Decision support systems; Highway construction; Performance evaluations; Statistical analysis