Document Type

Article

Publication Date

January 2016

Publication Title

Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW)

First Page

1066

Last Page

1073

DOI

10.1109/ICDMW.2016.0154

Abstract

Thousands of news are published everyday reporting worldwide events. Most of these news obtain a low level of popularity and only a small set of events become highly popular in social media platforms. Predicting rare cases of highly popular news is not a trivial task due to shortcomings of standard learning approaches and evaluation metrics. So far, the standard task of predicting the popularity of news items has been tackled by either of two distinct strategies related to the publication time of news. The first strategy, a priori, is focused on predicting the popularity of news upon their publication when related social feedback is unavailable. The second strategy, a posteriori, is focused on predicting the popularity of news using related social feedback. However, both strategies present shortcomings related to data availability and time of prediction. To overcome such shortcomings, we propose a hybrid strategy of time-based ensembles using models from both strategies. Using news data from Google News and popularity data from Twitter, we show that the proposed ensembles significantly improve the early and accurate prediction of rare cases of highly popular news.

Comments

This is the Accepted Version of an article published in the Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW). The Version of Record is available online at this link.
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