Document Type
Article
Publication Date
April 2015
Publication Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
5
DOI
10.1038/srep09957
Disciplines
Atmospheric Sciences | Climate | Meteorology
Abstract
The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario’s forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario’s forced signal.
Recommended Citation
Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, and Steven A. Mauget. "Comparing the Model-simulated Global Warming Signal to Observations Using Empirical Estimates of Unforced Noise" Scientific Reports (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep09957
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Included in
Atmospheric Sciences Commons, Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons
Comments
This article originally appeared in Scientific Reports in Volume 5, and can be found online at this link. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/