This report provides the findings from the third phase of a three-part study about the influences of neighborhood crimes on travel mode choice. While previous phases found evidence that high levels of neighborhood crime discourage people from choosing to walk, bicycle and ride transit, consistent with the authors’ hypothesis, they also produced counterintuitive findings suggesting that in some cases, high crime neighborhoods encourage transit ridership at the expense of driving—the opposite of what common sense would suggest. Phase 3 tested possible explanations for these counterintuitive findings with a series of methodological improvements. These improvements were:
- Improvement 1: Used the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system‘s 2008 Station Profile Survey travel data set to replace the Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) 2000 data used in previous phases.
- Improvement 2: Separated drop-off and drive-alone modes in logit models.
- Improvement 3: Variables at the corridor level replaced previous variables at the transportation analysis zone (TAZ) level.
- Improvement 4: Average parcel size (APS) variable replaced the intersection density measure of urban design.
- Improvement 5: Used nested logit modeling techniques.
These yielded strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that high-crime neighborhoods encourage driving, and they generated none of the counterintuitive findings from previous phases.
Neighborhood crimes, Travel behavior, Mode choice
Christopher E. Ferrell, Shishir Mathur, and Bruce S. Appleyard. "Neighborhood Crime and Transit Station Access Mode choice - Phase III of Neighborhood Crime and Travel Behavior" Mineta Transportation Institute Publications (2015).