Publication Date

Spring 2020

Degree Type

Master's Project

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Computer Science

First Advisor

Leonard Wesley

Second Advisor

Phil Heller

Third Advisor

Wendy Lee

Keywords

Pancreatic Cancer, Evidential Reasoning, Next Generation Sequencing, Genetic Mutations, Machine Learning, Support Vector Classifier, Biomarkers.

Abstract

This study is an effort to develop a tool for early detection of pancreatic cancer using evidential reasoning. An evidential reasoning model predicts the likelihood of an individual developing pancreatic cancer by processing the outputs of a Support Vector Classifier, and other input factors such as smoking history, drinking history, sequencing reads, biopsy location, family and personal health history. Certain features of the genomic data along with the mutated gene sequence of pancreatic cancer patients was obtained from the National Cancer Institute (NIH) Genomic Data Commons (GDC). This data was used to train the SVC. A prediction accuracy of ~85% with a ROC AUC of 83.4% was achieved. Synthetic data was assembled in different combinations to evaluate the working of evidential reasoning model. Using this, variations in the belief interval of developing pancreatic cancer are observed. When the model is provided with an input of high smoking history and family history of cancer, an increase in the evidential reasoning interval in belief of pancreatic cancer and support in the machine learning model prediction is observed. Likewise, decrease in the quantity of genetic material and an irregularity in the cellular structure near the pancreas increases support in the machine learning classifier’s prediction of having pancreatic cancer. This evidence-based approach is an attempt to diagnose the pancreatic cancer at a premalignant stage. Future work includes using the real sequencing reads as well as accurate habits and real medical and family history of individuals to increase the efficiency of the evidential reasoning model. Next steps also involve trying out different machine learning models to observe their performance on the dataset considered in this study.

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