Publication Date

12-1-2021

Document Type

Article

Publication Title

Nature Communications

Volume

12

Issue

1

DOI

10.1038/s41467-021-21134-2

Abstract

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.

Funding Number

OPP1193472

Funding Sponsor

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Comments

Full author list: Ricardo Águas, Adam Mahdi, Rima Shretta, Peter Horby, Martin Landray, Lisa White, Fatima Arifi, Chynar Zhumalieva, Inke N. D. Lubis, Antoninho Benjamin Monteiro, Ainura Moldokmatova, Siyu Chen, Aida Estebesova, Mofakhar Hussain, Dipti Lata, Emmanuel A. Bakare, Biniam Getachew, Mohammad Nadir Sahak, Phetsavanh Chanthavilay, Akindeh M. Nji, Yu Nandar Aung, Nathaniel Hupert, Sai Thein Than Tun, Wirichada Pan-Ngum, K. C. Sarin, Handoyo Harsono, Sana Eybpoosh, Renato Mendes Coutinho, Semeeh A. Omoleke, Amen-Patrick Nwosu, Nantasit Luangasanatip, Ainura Kutmanova, Aizhan Dooronbekova, Antonio Ximenes, Merita Monteiro, Olivier Celhay, Keyrellous Adib, Amel H. Salim, Yuki Yunanda, Mahnaz Hossain Fariba, Amirah Azzeri, Penny Hancock, Hakim Bekrizadeh, Sayed Ataullah Saeedzai, Ivana Alona, Grace Wezi Mzumara, Joao Martins, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Hamid Sharifi, Talant Abdyldaev, Babak Jamshidi, Noran Naqiah Hairi, Naima Nasir, Rashid U. Zaman, Sopuruchukwu Obiesie, Roberto A. Kraenkel, Nicholas Letchford, Lucsendar Raimunda Fernandes Alves, Sandra Adele, Lorena Suárez-Idueta, Nicole Advani, Manar Marzouk, Viviana Mabombo, Aibek Mukambetov, Adeniyi Kolade Aderoba, Bpriya Lakshmy Tbalasubramaniam, Nicole Feune de Colombi, Maria Angela Varela Niha, Francisco Obando, Parinda Wattanasri, Sompob Saralamba, Fatiha Shabaruddin, Shafiun Nahin Shimul, Maznah Dahlui, Reshania Naidoo, Caroline Franco, Michael G. Klein, Aisuluu Kubatova, Nusrat Jabin, Shwe Sin Kyaw, Luzia Tomas Freitas, Sunil Pokharel, Proochista Ariana, Chris Erwin G. Mercado, Shamil Ibragimov, John Robert C. Medina & Mesulame Namedre

This article has been updated with a correction. The correction can be found here

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Department

Marketing and Business Analytics

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