Detecting the impacts of newborn babies and its effect on elementary school enrollment

Publication Date

1-1-2021

Document Type

Article

Publication Title

ICIC Express Letters, Part B: Applications

Volume

12

Issue

6

DOI

10.24507/icicelb.12.06.499

First Page

499

Last Page

506

Abstract

Factors such as war, epidemic, laws, and culture affect the worldwide birth rate whether in gender balance or birth rate itself. The Taiwanese birth rate is affect-ed by traditional Chinese culture – the Chinese zodiac. The compulsory education in Taiwan begins from elementary school; thus, the declining birth rate has a direct impact on elementary school enrollment. This study intends to detect how cultural beliefs affect the number of infants and whether that affects elementary school enrollment. The target series data sets are infants and the first grade of enrollment in elementary schools. ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) was used to build predicted models for the number of newborn babies. The results found that the year of dragon and tiger had effects on elementary school enrollment significantly. This study suggests the Taiwanese gov-ernment should launch longitudinal planning to prepare the effect of the declining birth rate on school enrollment, budget, and teacher preparation programs.

Keywords

ARIMA, Chinese zodiac, Cultural beliefs, Declining birth rate, Education management, Enrollment of elementary schools, Time series

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS