Analysis of historic and current New Jersey deer population densities in Kelly and Ray (2023)
Publication Date
9-15-2024
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Forest Ecology and Management
Volume
568
DOI
10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122116
Abstract
In their article in this journal, “Regional impacts of agricultural land use history on forest vegetation and soils: Comparing primary and post-agricultural forests in Northern New Jersey”, Kelly and Ray (2023) present on page 3 these white-tailed deer density estimates for New Jersey: “historic low densities (≤3.9 deer/km2) to current high densities in New Jersey (≥15 deer/km2).” These density estimates are not adequately sourced and not consistent with the density estimates presented in this correspondence. Their statement suggests that the current average deer density is at minimum nearly four times (3.85) the “historic” level. Use of the term “historic” is somewhat confusing because the authors are referring to the deer density of 1948–1973. Typically, the term refers to precontact, pre-settlement, or precolonial. One of the authors suggests in an article referenced in this article that the 1948–1973 New Jersey deer density is comparable with average densities for the precolonial period. However, the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station estimated that typical pre-settlement deer habitat could support 15–21 deer per square mile (5.8–8.1 deer/km2). This correspondence provides sources for relevant data and a discussion of the “historic” Kelly and Ray (2023) data. Analysis of this data suggests that the statement in their article could be restated as ranging from historic, precolonial densities at the high end of around 8.1 deer/km2 to recent densities of around 11 deer/km2 in 2018 and as 8.3 deer/km2 in 2015. Instead of asserting that the current average New Jersey deer density is at minimum almost four times the historic density, it could be asserted based on this analysis that a recent New Jersey average deer density was roughly near the high end of the historic pre-settlement estimated density when primary forests prevailed. Similarly, using the precolonial estimate from a paper referenced by one of these authors, the recent United States white-tailed deer population is in the range of precolonial estimates.
Department
Information Systems and Technology
Recommended Citation
G. Kent Webb. "Analysis of historic and current New Jersey deer population densities in Kelly and Ray (2023)" Forest Ecology and Management (2024). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122116
