Potential Impact of Increased Global Warming on the Hydroclimatology of Central Africa during the twenty-first Century
Publication Date
1-1-2025
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Earth Systems and Environment
DOI
10.1007/s41748-025-00710-2
Abstract
Africa is highly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, particularly changes in hydroclimatic conditions. Assessing the impacts that could be reduced by limiting global warming is therefore crucial to strengthening adaptation to climate change, especially in Central Africa, known for its rich biodiversity along with the diversity of its ecosystems. In that perspective, the purpose of the present study is to assess the projected impact of increased global warming on the hydroclimatology of Central Africa, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations integrated into the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE). One of the novelties of this research lies in its methodological strength, utilizing state-of-the-art RCM outputs to firstly investigate on the projected changes in some key hydroclimatic variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture and surface runoff), under two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the near and far future. Results reveal that an increase in radiative forcing to the higher RCP8.5 scenario, could induce a robust increase of up to about 3 °C in temperature toward the end of the twenty-first century. This would contribute to a moderate decrease of around 30% in the precipitation regime, coupled with a stronger decrease in surface runoff over southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Angola and eastern Zambia. Moreover, under the effect of increased global warming from the RCP2.6 to the RCP8.5 scenario, some countries such as Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DRC and Sudan would experience a significant increase of up to 26% in potential evapotranspiration, coupled with a significant decrease of up to 40% in soil moisture, which is likely to exacerbate water stress and drought conditions. Results also showed that limiting global warming to the lower RCP2.6 scenario, would avoid an expansion of up to 25% in the spatial extent of areas characterised by drier climatic conditions, which would have major implications for ecosystems, agriculture and water availability in the affected countries. The insights provided by this research therefore contribute to ongoing efforts to improve our understanding on the potential impacts of global warming on the hydroclimatology of an under-studied subregion such as Central Africa.
Funding Sponsor
San José State University
Keywords
Central Africa, Climate change, CORDEX-CORE, Global warming, Hydroclimatology
Department
Meteorology and Climate Science
Recommended Citation
Abdon K. Dessacka, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Moustapha Tall, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Steven Chouto, Bienvenue D. Dikwa, Crépin K. Komelo, Rodric M. Nonki, Ismaila Diallo, Arona Diedhiou, David Monkam, and Hamid Sana. "Potential Impact of Increased Global Warming on the Hydroclimatology of Central Africa during the twenty-first Century" Earth Systems and Environment (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00710-2
