Publication Date
1-21-2026
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Plos Climate
Volume
5
Issue
1 January
DOI
10.1371/journal.pclm.0000563
Abstract
Marine cold-spells are an understudied phenomena which can both negatively impact marine wildlife and provide thermal refugia for species displaced by climate change. To develop forward-looking and climate-ready management schemes, it is critical to examine how marine species respond to cold-spells, how long-term warming will affect marine cold-spells over the next century, and how these future cold-spells will in turn affect species of conservation concern, particularly in marine protected areas. To this end, we detect marine cold-spells across the California Current System, a productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System, relative to a fixed baseline (1980–2009) and to a detrended time series that isolates cold-spells from long-term climate change. We then project the impact of future marine cold-spells on habitat suitability for two endangered top predators: leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus). Models project that 68–99% of the California Current System will no longer experience fixed baseline marine cold-spells by 2099 under a high emissions scenario, though marine cold-spells will still occur relative to a detrended time series. Blue whales lost 5% of their core habitat in National Marine Sanctuaries during historical marine cold-spells and are projected to gain 1–2% more core habitat during future, fixed baseline marine cold-spells. Leatherback sea turtles had little core habitat change during historical marine cold-spells but are projected to gain 4–5% more core habitat during future marine cold-spells. It is plausible that both species gain habitat during future marine cold-spells because these events provide thermal refugia to their prey. We urge conservationists and ecologists to increase their attention to marine cold-spells as potential thermal refugia and prioritize collecting data on endangered species’ prey in order to understand more deeply how species will respond to extreme temperature events.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication 1.0 License.
Department
Moss Landing Marine Laboratories
Recommended Citation
Kaila J. Frazer, Heather M. Welch, Michael G. Jacox, Nerea Lezama-Ochoa, Briana Abrahms, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Scott R. Benson, Daniel M. Palacios, L. David Smith, Thomas A. Clay, Steven J. Bograd, and Elliott L. Hazen. "Marine cold-spells in the California Current System: Modeling changes in frequency and impacts on endangered species habitat" Plos Climate (2026). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000563
