Publication Date

Fall 2009

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Meteorology

Advisor

Eugene C. Cordero

Subject Areas

Physical Oceanography.; Atmospheric Sciences.

Abstract

Mean changes in the climatology of 21st century annual variance of the sea-level pressure field in the North Pacific Ocean were investigated from all climate models that were used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In several specific areas, a statistically significant increase in the annual variance of sea-level pressure was simulated for the 21st century in three emission scenarios; however, the magnitude of change did not follow the forcing The results indicate increased low-pressure activity for the Bering Sea, Bering Strait, Alaska, Gulf of Alaska, Canadian Rocky Mountains, and the west coast of the U.S. A separate study investigated the potential correlation between the magnitude of change predicted by individual models and the models' equilibrium climate sensitivity value. Statistically significant, positively correlated regions from each emission scenario over the eastern portions of the North Pacific Ocean were found. The results indicated that, in the regions of Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska, the Canadian Rocky Mountains, and the west coast of the U.S., the magnitude of change in the annual variance of sea-level pressure could be predicted by the model's sensitivity to CO2 forcing. The sensitivity and robustness of the results from each study were examined using two different multimodel groups.

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