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Publication Date

Summer 2016

Degree Type

Thesis - Campus Access Only

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Meteorology

Advisor

Eugene C. Cordero

Keywords

Climate change, Coffee

Subject Areas

Climate change; Meteorology

Abstract

The coffee crop is of utmost importance and a large aspect of the culture in Chiapas, Mexico and will most likely be affected by climate change in the near future. This research provides analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) downscaled data, while the majority of work completed on the effects of climate change on the coffee crop in Chiapas has used CMIP3 data. Results are analyzed over the timeframe of 1950 to 2044 at Chiapas, Mexico. Trend analysis for maximum and minimum temperature (Tasmax and Tasmin) and precipitation for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was conducted. Using observational data and the data obtained from the model runs, in 2044, Tasmax (Tasmin) are predicted to be approximately 26.16°C (13.59°C) at RCP 4.5 and 27.81˚C (14.16˚C) at RCP 8.5. This is approximately 0.8°C (0.8°C) higher for Tasmax (Tasmin) at RCP 4.5 and approximately 2.5°C (1.35°C) higher for Tasmax (Tasmin) at RCP 8.5 than the average decadal temperature recorded in the 2000s. The conclusion of the analysis suggests that temperatures in 2044 will possibly be too high at RCP 4.5 and will very likely be too high at RCP 8.5 for the coffee crop to thrive within its natural growing temperature range (Tasmin to Tasmax) of 15˚C to 24˚C.

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