Publication Date

Spring 2025

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Meteorology and Climate Science

Advisor

Craig Clements; Adam Kochanski; Angel Caus

Abstract

This study describes a validation of the surface wind model WindNinja conducted over different types of complex terrain. WindNinja is one of many software tools first responders use to better understand wind flow over such terrain. One approach to receive a higher resolution wind field to account for local terrain effects is to downscale numerical weather prediction model output with the help of WindNinja. 2 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) output was used as input for our WindNinja simulations. We tested the surface wind model for two case sites in California characterized by canyons of different terrain complexity. Simulations were conducted with different initialization methods and numerical solvers within WindNinja to see how the model performs using different setups. The first simulations were conducted by initializing the model from a singular point. Further simulations were initialized using a spatial method with explicit input values over the whole modeling domain. WindNinja was also tested during a wind event to evaluate its performance during critical fire weather scenarios. The simulation results were then compared to WRF’s model output to see if WindNinja could improve upon the mesoscale model’s forecast in a canyon setting. Statistical error metrics were calculated to compare the model output to the observations and thus validate the performance of both WindNinja and WRF at several stations for the two case sites. WindNinja performed only marginally better than WRF over simpler terrain. WRF performed best in complex terrain with steep canyons compared to WindNinja, which struggled with increased wind speeds at peaks and ridges.

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Available for download on Tuesday, February 03, 2026

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