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Publication Date

Spring 2025

Degree Type

Thesis - Campus Access Only

Degree Name

Master of Arts (MA)

Department

Communication Studies

Advisor

Marie Haverfield; Hojeong Lee; Raman Priya

Abstract

Individuals often overestimate their political knowledge—known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Such overconfidence may lead individuals to participate in political discussions based on inaccurate information, ultimately degrading the quality of the discourse. Accordingly, this study aimed to explore how overconfidence affects individuals’ political opinion expression. First, this study explored how overconfidence moderates the opinion expression process, using the Spiral of Silence (SoS) theory as a theoretical framework. Second, I examined the relationships between overconfidence, political efficacy, and opinion expression, analyzing whether inflated self-assessments of knowledge trigger actual opinion expression. Third, by comparing these relationships across face-to-face and social media interactions, this study aimed to assess the theoretical implications of the SoS theory within today’s media environment. Findings suggest that the SoS theory was generally not supported, although a significant negative relationship was found between overconfidence and political efficacy, and only efficacy predicted opinion expression. In addition, no consistent differences were found between face-to-face and social media settings. These findings highlight the need to distinguish between political overconfidence and efficacy and that both psychological and contextual factors play a crucial role in shaping individuals’ political expression.

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