Publication Date
1-7-2026
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Global Change Biology
Volume
32
Issue
1
DOI
10.1111/gcb.70676
Abstract
Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.
Funding Number
OZR4102
Funding Sponsor
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Keywords
climate change, coastal wetland, ecosystem services, habitat suitability modeling, Lagrangian particle-tracking, ocean dispersal, range expansion
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Department
Moss Landing Marine Laboratories
Recommended Citation
Lucia I.A. Enes Gramoso, Dustin Carroll, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Remi Bardou, Michael J. Osland, and Tom Van der Stocken. "21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States" Global Change Biology (2026). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70676
