Publication Date

Spring 2026

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Meteorology and Climate Science

Advisor

Minghui Diao; Eugene Cordero; Ismaila Diallo

Abstract

Extreme heat threatens California’s diverse landscapes and populations through intensifying and geographically shifting patterns. This study examined the temporal trend and spatial heterogeneities of California’s extreme heat for 1994–2015. The analysis was based on the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), specifically its 25-km regionally refined configuration. While the Desert/Inland region exhibited the highest number of days ≥ 35 °C and the highest heatwave severity, Central Valley showed the fastest increase in the number of days ≥ 35 °C and heatwave events, as well as the fastest increases of days exceeding various heat index thresholds over the two decades. Large spatial heterogeneities were found at sub-regional, county, and census tract levels in terms of 22-year averages as well as decadal trends. Analyses of internal variabilities – El Niño, La Niña or Neutral conditions – showed that the El Niño years had the least impacts from heat events. Vulnerability indices were calculated based on meteorological and socioeconomic conditions to assess the average and evolving changes of population vulnerability and potential growth of energy demand. Overall, these results provided a framework for using Earth system modeling to guide societal adaptation plans and support decision-making activities to enhance both public health and energy resilience.

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